The new Middle East / Working Paper
Managed successions and stability in the Arab World
25/11/2010 By Kristina Kausch
Arab dictators are about to take their leave. A decade after a wave of monarchical successions, in which young kings such as Abdullah in Jordan and Mohammed VI in Morocco succeeded their deceased fathers on the throne, the region now stands before a wave of engineered republican successions.
Which are the mechanisms that engineered successions typically follow? Who are the prospective new leaders, what are their chances of obtaining and sustaining power, and what impact might their rule have on the region’s fragile power balance? Which are the main risk factors and how can the West contribute to reducing these risks?
This paper assesses the succession scenarios in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya and Yemen and explores the sources of instability these prospective leadership changes may bring about.
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Keywords
Algeria Civil society Democracy Democracy promotion Egypt Elections Libya Middle East Tunisia YemenBio author: Kristina Kausch
Democracy promotion. Maghreb. Egypt. Morocco. Tunisia. Mediterranean. Political Islam.
