FRIDE Security and Conflict

European conflict resolution policies: truncated peace-building

Fernanda Faria, Richard Youngs — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

Many documents have highlighted the importance of the ‘security, governance and development’ trinity to Europe’s attempts to temper conflict and state fragility. The European Security Strategy and its 2008 update both identify these linkages as pivotal to more effective EU conflict resolution.

Enough time has now passed for a stock-take and it is expected that considerable progress will have been made. Our analysis suggests, however, that European policies in situations of conflict or fragility remain ineffectual, often unduly narrow in scope and at odds with the EU’s declared holism.

Most criticism has focused on the problematic civil-military link in crisis management, yet it is in the broader politics of peacebuilding that European policies are most seriously deficient.

Iraq in 2010: The dangers of European complacency

Edward Burke — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

The Iraqi parliamentary elections on 7 March were the most severe test to date of the truce that emerged between the major factions during 2007 and 2008. The banning of Sunni and secular leaders from standing as candidates due to alleged links to the former ruling Ba’ath Party prompted calls for a boycott of the polls.

Although the attention of the international community has moved elsewhere, none of the major obstacles to ending the conflict in Iraq have been surmounted.

Meanwhile the EU’s strategy for Iraq remains hopelessly outdated and its influence in Iraq is virtually non-existent. Opting out of an enhanced role in Iraq undermines the EU’s claim to be a credible contributor to international security.

Yemen: Make haste slowly

Edward Burke — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

AFP/Getty Images

As the world’s governments gather in London to decide upon a response to the threat from a resurgent al-Qaeda in Yemen the first thing that the leaders of the US and Europe should recognise is how easy it is for them to make the situation much worse.

From a position of doing too little in terms of counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen, Western governments now seem intent on trying to do too much too quickly. This Policy Brief warns against a course of action that would inflame anti-Western sentiment and argues instead for a multi-faceted response that deals with the local problems that have sapped the capacity of the Yemeni government and allowed al-Qaeda to flourish.

A New Agenda for US-EU Security Cooperation

Megan Chabalowski, Daniel Korski, Daniel Serwer — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

AFP/Getty Images

Through the ups and downs of the US-European security relationship, including stark disagreements over conflicts such as the Bosnian War in the mid-1990s and the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, there has been growing desire on both sides for more practical collaboration on conflict prevention and crisis management not only within a NATO framework, but also directly between the US and the European Union (EU).

On the eve of the fifteen-year anniversary of the New Transatlantic Agenda, which
forms the basis of the US-EU relationship, three scholars – Daniel Korski, Daniel Serwer and Megan Chabalowski, one European and two Americans – examine the history of the relationship, US and EU security capabilities and lay out an agenda for the future.

Does Spain have an Ostpolitik?

Natalia Shapovalova — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

Spain has never had a particularly strong interest in Eastern Europe. In recent years Spain has rushed to engage with Russia, due to Moscow’s importance for European security. But there is little long-term thinking behind this engagement, and Spain continues to neglect the rest of the EU’s eastern dimension. The reason for this is that Spain still sees the region in terms of an area to trade-off against gains in Mediterranean policy rather than as intrinsically important in its own right for Spanish national interests.

Spain's War in Afghanistan

Edward Burke — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

Spain has been a useful but low-key contributor to the mission in Afghanistan. It has undertaken valuable civilian work, but its military role has been more circumscribed.

Towards the end of 2009 the Spanish government was conspicuously muted in its reaction to President Obama’s new strategy for the war in Afghanistan. As Spain assumes the EU presidency the Spanish Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, has yet to convince that he is committed to winning the war in Afghanistan.

This policy brief analyses Spain’s role in Afghanistan so far, and examines possible ways forward.

Beyond Copenhagen: Securitising climate change

Richard Youngs — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

AFP/Getty Images

The December 2009 Copenhagen summit (COP 15) will agree new targets, new mechanisms and funding – even if not for the moment in the form of a binding treaty. But in political terms this may all be something of a diversion. The broader politics of climate change are not essentially about such target-setting and large-sweep negotiations.

One of the main imperatives beyond Copenhagen will be to incorporate the geopolitical dimensions of climate change fully into a broadened external energy security policy. On this matter, Europe is a laggard not a leader.

In this Policy Brief Richard Youngs points out that the EU needs urgently to build systematic consideration of the strategic impact of climate change into its mainstream foreign policy decisions. The broader question of how climate change is likely to fundamentally challenge what we mean by security remains to be addressed.

Climate change requires a more engaged and geostrategic foreign policy, not just renewables targets.

The EU, Central Asia and Security Sector Reform

Jos Boonstra — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

OSCE Secretary General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut (L) meets with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev (R)in Astana on November 12, 2009 during a working visit to the central Asian nations (AFP/Getty Images).

Central Asia faces a broad range of security challenges. Due to the region’s position at the crossroads between Russia, China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and the Caspian Sea it is confronted with a range of trans-national issues such as drug trafficking, human trafficking, organised crime and terrorism. Central Asia also encounters specific regional threats including scarcity of water resources for generating power and irrigation purposes, which is currently causing tension.

On a national level the five Central Asian republics face the threat of instability due to bad governance and the harsh impact of the economic crisis. The European Union regards itself as a security actor and takes a keen interest in working with Central Asian states on the basis of joint security interests. One security aspect that is key to both national security and international and regional security cooperation is the concept of Security Sector Reform (SSR), which aims to support a locally driven reform effort of all national security-related agencies and oversight mechanisms.

This EUCAM policy brief assesses in what aspects of SSR the EU is engaged in with Central Asia and in what context these possible activities should be viewed.

Signs of hope in the Western Balkans?

Judy Batt — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

AFP/Getty Images

Ratification of the Lisbon Treaty has cleared the way for further EU enlargement, but bilateral disputes in the Balkans region first have to be settled. While Kosovo’s independence has gone better than many feared, it remains an intractable problem that the EU will have to tackle: the question is whether the EU is ready for the responsibility.

The Balkans has been badly affected by the economic recession. The full social impact has yet to be felt, with worrying implications for political stability. If the model of economic transition based on high inflows of foreign capital is now no longer available, the EU will have to develop a new plan and find additional resources for restarting sustainable growth in the region.

The "soldier-diplomat" in Afghanistan and Iraq

Edward Burke — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

Multinational Force-Iraq

The US and UK Armed Forces have learned the painful lessons of their limited engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq in the aftermath of the invasion of both countries, and are now prepared to assume wide-ranging humanitarian and reconstruction tasks. ‘Stabilisation’ by the military is crucial to the successful prosecution of any counterinsurgency campaign but has led to an inevitable encroachment upon ‘civilian’ responsibilities, the militarisation of aid and the emergence of a more political military.

The repercussions for civil-military relations are profound and poorly understood. Drawing upon recent field research in Iraq, this FRIDE paper argues that, while the military is often better placed to provide immediate relief in the most insecure environments, civilian supervision over stability operations must be asserted at every level to reverse the ‘creeping militarisation’ of foreign policy. To undertake this complex task will require the emergence of a civilian doctrine and an unconventional diplomat.

No time to wind-down in Bosnia

Sofia Sebastián — 2010-03-17T05:13:24+01:00

AFP/Getty Images

In May 2009, a crisis emerged in Bosnia when nationalist leader Milorad Dodik passed a resolution in the Republika Srpska parliament designed to undermine some of the key accomplishments of the state building process in place since the end of the war in 1995.

Although the crisis was eventually averted, it demonstrated again the highly volatile nature of Bosnian politics and the challenges faced by an international community that has grown impatient, frustrated and increasingly unsure how to resolve the Bosnian quagmire. The country continues to show no clear signs of reconciliation and there is a lack of commitment to the process of EU accession.

Most key reforms to date have either been directly imposed by the High Representative (HR), or have been accepted only after intensive pressure from the international community. Different political actors still hold mutually incompatible ideas about what the state should look like, and have not hesitated to raise the level of nationalist rhetoric in order to shore up support within their own ethnic groups. In June 2009 the EU expressed concern at ‘the unconstructive political atmosphere’.