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International trends / Comment

Cuba: between continuity and change

09/03/2008 By Susanne Gratius

On 24 February 2008 the Cuban Parliament chose the 31 members of the Council of State. Raul Castro was proclaimed President of the state’s highest governing body, and José Ramón Machado, a historical figure from the revolution, was named First Vicepresident.

This would seem to suggest more continuity than change. But within the political framework a new era is getting underway, and the degree of change that can be expected depends on a delicate balance between necessary adjustments to the system and maintaining unity within the regime now that its iconic alter ego, Fidel Castro, has stepped aside.

The most likely scenario is a gradual process of reforms within the continuing logic on a one-party system.

The position of Raul in all this is somewhat ambiguous. He has a reputation for being both tough and conciliatory at the same time. On one hand, he announces change, and on the other, he keeps the regime intact. And even though he represents a different kind of decision-making process, less arbitrary and personal and more concerted and consensual in character, he cannot afford to risk the regime’s image of unity.

The second Castro lacks the charisma of his predecessor, but he is a faithful soldier of the institutions of the revolution, the PCC and FAR.

In this comment article Susanne Gratius analyses the new regime that is emerging in the wake of Fidel’s decision to step down, and asks what both Cubans and the international community, in particular the US and the EU, should expect from the new leadership.

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Keywords

Cuba Democratisation Elections Ideology Latin America & Caribbean Political Reform Revolution

Related publications

• Cuba: the end of an era
• Helping Castro? EU and US policies towards Cuba
• The External Actors and Cuba after Fidel

Bio author: Susanne Gratius

PhD in Political Science by the University of Hamburg. Expert in Latin America.