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Eastern dimension and the Balkans / Comment

Kosovo: the road ahead

20/02/2008 By Jos Boonstra

Kosovo’s declaration of independence has set Russia and the West at loggerheads once again. While the US and most of Europe have hailed it as a hopeful new beginning, Serbia and Russia insist a Pandora’s Box has been opened that will result in upheaval and unilateral declarations of independence everywhere from the Basque country in Spain to Kurdistan in Iraq.

The UN, meanwhile, is packing its bags while another hesitant player is taking over. The European Union is setting up a rule of law mission consisting of 1,900 police officers, customs officers, judges and prosecutors.

So what lies ahead for the newborn country? Two scenarios could unfold. In the positive scenario Kosovo is recognised by a large number of countries, the EU stands firm on support and assistance and the newly attained independence spurs economic development. In the negative scenario, however, the EU would be half-hearted in its support of Kosovo’s independence and development.

Weak international support could temper local enthusiasm for making a fresh start and pessimistic predictions of a Kosovo that is a black hole, rife with crime and corruption, would become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Tensions are sure to continue for some time, particularly in the northern area of Mitrovica where most Serbs live, but it remains to be seen whether the expectations of either Russia or the West will come to fruition.

In this Comment article Jos Boonstra explores the possible implications, for Kosovo, Serbia and the international community, of the country’s decision to go it alone.

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Keywords

Divided societies EU Foreign Policy International relations Kosovo Russia Serbia Western Balkans

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• De jure vs. de facto: a pyrrhic victory in Kosovo?
• Kosovo: the best of the bad solutions
• The EU's challenge in Kosovo
• The Kosovo debate: beyond the headlines

Bio author: Jos Boonstra

Jos Boonstra is senior researcher in the democratisation programme of FRIDE. He focusses on EU, NATO and OSCE policies in Eastern Europe and beyond with specific attention to democratisation of security and defence.