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Middle East & North Africa / Comment

Challenging future after Annapolis

29/11/2007 By Mariano Aguirre Ernst

Olmert, Bush y Abbas, tras la conferencia de Annapolis
Getty Images/AFP
The talks in Annapolis have produced one surprise and several predictable results. The surprise is in the final declaration which sets a timeframe for negotiations and indicates that all of the issues related to the conflict will be dealt with.

The more predictable facet of the declaration is the fact that it does not mention any of these issues specifically (the expansion of settlements, the return of Palestinian refugees, the situation in Jersualem, the borders of a future Palestinian state).

The willingness to negotiate within one year is also worthy of attention, though it would appear to contradict the logic backed at the meeting of using the same methodology the Quartet (the US, the EU, Russia and the United Nations) has been employing since 2003.

In effect, the Quartet intended to use a strategy based on step-by-step, accumulative negotiation, putting special emphasis on what security the Palestinian Authority could guarantee to Israel: with better security, Israel would allow greater mobility to Palestinians, fewer reprisals and some other measures such as the release of prisoners.

It is still rather vague if the intention is to negotiate all the key issues at once, however. If this were not the case it would be a great advance, but if the total security that Israel has been demanding for over 20 years is a precondition for the process to advance, there is a serious probability that entire effort will fail.


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Keywords

Conflict resolution Gaza Strip and West Bank Israel MEPP Middle East Negotiation

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Bio author: Mariano Aguirre Ernst

Mariano Aguirre has been Director of the Centro de Investigación para la Paz, in Madrid, and Coordinator of programmes on peace and conflicts at the Ford Foundation, in New York. Mariano Aguirre publishes articles in various media in Spain and internationally such as OpenDemocracy, Le monde diplomatique, El Correo, La Vanguardia, Maniere de voir, AlertNet, Enjeux Internationaux, Temas, El País, Política Exterior, Debate, BBC World Service, Radio Netherland, Radio Nacional de España, Radio France International, Mediterranean Politics and CNN Spain.