Case studies / Other publications
Guatemala: security, human rights and the state after the elections
19/11/2007 By Publicaciones FRIDE
It was agreed that Colom, a social democrat who leads the National Unity of Hope party (Unidad Nacional de Esperanza, or UNE), shares the international community’s concerns over state fragility, murder rates, judicial impunity and drug trafficking in this country of 13 million people. However, panellists and participants observed that he may not have the instruments at his disposal to deal adequately with the threats his country faces.
In particular, participants stressed the dichotomy between the promises embodied in the peace accords that marked the end of the civil war – signed by the government and the guerrillas in 1996 – and the hollowed-out state of today. The sources of the operational weakness and corruption identified in the police forces and prosecution service lie in the combination of old counter-insurgency structures or fraternities and the new sources of power and wealth emanating from transnational crime, particularly drug trafficking.
A young population forced to survive in impoverished circumstances, within a highly unequal society, has accentuated the crime trend: according to US estimates, 90 percent of cocaine consumed in the United States now passes through Central America. Meanwhile, killings linked to semi-official programmes of “social cleansing” have soared in recent years.
The crime and murder wave associated with this process of institutional decay largely accounts for the massive urban appeal of Otto Pérez Molina, the retired general who competed with Colom in the second round of elections under the slogan “mano dura” (a firm hand).
For the president-elect to succeed in improving security and delivering on pledges of socio-economic development, the response of the state and political system will prove crucial. Yet speakers expressed doubts in this respect over the competence of the civil service, the extreme fragmentation of political parties, and the different factions within the UNE – including representatives of the military and of criminal cartels.
A number of substantial reforms in the years since the peace accords were applauded. Greater electoral registration, more transparency in government purchases and an increased role for indigenous politicians at the local level were acknowledged as important achievements of the outgoing government.
The conclusion of the sixth presidential elections in Guatemala’s 22-year-old democracy is also a sign of a certain consolidation of the political system. Less progress, however, was noted in the crucial field of tax reform: the private sector, represented by the powerful employers’ federation CACIF, was criticised for its “anti-state” anarchism in freezing the tax burden at just over 10 percent of GDP.
One speaker observed that Colom’s government might generate a “surprise” on the tax issue. Several participants, however, noted that Guatemala’s failure, as a lower middle income country, to establish a solid tax base brought into question future support for development or other aid programmes, particularly after the substantial international investments made in the wake of the peace accords.
Other speakers reminded the seminar that foreign donors often funded poorly conceived and badly managed projects, with little understanding of the reality of the country’s institutional history.
In this respect, debate focused on the new flagship international initiative: the UN’s Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), which will come into operation in January, under the Spanish Public Prosecutor Carlos Castresana.
Tasked with investigating clandestine groups within the state and pushing for their prosecution - above all in the police - the CICIG was applauded as a highly experimental initiative. Yet the difficulties it might face were also acknowledged. In particular, formal criminal prosecutions will remain in the hands of the Guatemalan judicial system, which might well fail to cooperate. Much will depend on Colom’s choice of attorney general, concerted diplomatic pressure, and the president-elect’s own determination.
The physical dangers likely to be faced by foreign and domestic investigators are also considerable, and could necessitate a frequent rotation of staff.
Even so, the international commission represents a major improvement on the current policy of regular “purges” in the police and other security institutions. As several speakers observed, these clean-ups only serve to fuel the ranks of organised crime, and are often coordinated by factions with the given security forces who are seeking to reinforce their own powers.
They are a blunt tool, and have reduced the national police force to just over 18,000 serving officers. Of these, an estimated 2,500 are on patrol on any given day, proving meagre protection for a country of 13 million people which contains close to one million firearms.
Likewise, doubts were expressed over the new US plan, announced in October by President George W Bush, to provide 500 million dollars in initial funding for the military in Mexico and Central America so as to strengthen the fight against narco-trafficking.
Given that the participation of retired and current officers in drug rackets is notorious, speakers voiced concern that the initiative would backfire. Drug money is without doubt afflicting the state, but in itself this is historically weak, racially discriminatory and dominated by private economic interests.
Both domestic political leaders and foreign governments should focus their efforts not only on short-term counter-narcotic efforts, but also on the broad processes of peace-building and state construction that Guatemala sorely needs.
Publishing groups
FRIDE in Casa de GaliciaKeywords
Corruption Fragile state Governance Guatemala Latin America & Caribbean SecurityRelated publications
- Guatemala
- Guatemala: empowerment as ongoing process
- Reform versus capture: Guatemala after the elections
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'Publicaciones FRIDE' is the byline used whenever a publication doesn't have a specific author.
