FRIDE Democratisation

The financial crisis and EU foreign policy

Richard Youngs — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

G.Cerles/AFP/Getty Images

With a host of major banking-sector bail-outs having been agreed across Europe, attention is beginning to turn to the broader political impact of the financial crisis. The question arises of whether the crisis will affect the EU's broader foreign policies - and if so, how.

Many voices are already suggesting that the crisis is likely to mark a turning point in international relations of the same magnitude as those produced by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the attacks of 9/11. Many predict a weakening of support for economic liberalism beyond the immediate banking crisis. And many also foresee the crisis triggering a fundamental shift in the global balance of power and even infecting the liberal political values that ostensibly lie at the heart of European foreign policies. In short, the fear is taking root that the financial crisis will undermine the principal tenets of Western-sponsored global liberalism and encourage a retrenchment in US and European diplomacy.

However, in this Policy Brief, Richard Youngs cautions against such apocalyptic reasoning. Europe’s already existing drift away from global (economic and political) liberalism is part of the problem, not part of the solution. The crisis may even end up providing a positive service if it convinces the EU of the real effort and conviction needed to ensure that liberal foreign policies regain some reality.

Energy Challenges in the Middle East and North Africa

Edward Burke, Ana Echagüe, Richard Youngs — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

Naamani/AFP/Getty Images

In 2020 the European Union will be more dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and will also face tougher International competition for access to the region’s supplies.

Within the MENA region, a rapidly increasing population, authoritarian forms of governance and an enhanced risk of further conflict in the region provide a complex set of challenges for its emerging relationship with the EU.

This paper demonstrates the inextricable links between the energy trade and the future governance of the MENA region and outlines some of the related challenges to EU policies.

(Published by EDC 2020)

Russia and Central Asia from disinterest to eager leadership

Jos Boonstra — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

D.Astakhov/AFP/Getty Images

Jos Boonstra looks at the return of ‘the great game’ in Central Asia. For the first decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was absent from the region. Now it is back and seeks to use its cultural, linguistic and economic ties to boost its influence in the area.

It has an advantage over the EU in that it is happy to turn a blind eye to human rights violations. Russia wants stability and cheap energy supplies from the region. It will seek to increase its military presence partly to counter western involvement. Russia’s comeback in the region poses problems for the countries there seeking to retain their independence.

The EU needs to strengthen its presence in Central Asia so as not to leave the field open for Russia.

*This document was originally published as a part of "The EU-Russia centre review. Issue eight: Russian Foreign Policy", october 2008.

The EU Strategy for Central Asia: year one

Jos Boonstra, Neil Melvin — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

EU Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana and Uzbek Foreign Minister Vladimir Norov. (D.Faget/AFP/Getty Images)

In 2007, the Council of the European Union adopted “The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership”. This Strategy signalled the EU’s ambition to initiate a fundamental shift in its relations with Central Asia by linking general political goals to a concrete working prospectus in the region for the first time. The Strategy sets a high bar for achievement, identifying a broad range of priorities for the future relationship between the EU and states in Central Asia.

One year on from the adoption of the Strategy, the EU has made important progress in strengthening political contacts with Central Asia, but the Strategy has yet to deliver on its promise to foster a broad range of engagements. Moreover, considerable questions remain about the political direction of the EU’s approach to Central Asia.

With the war in Georgia in the summer of 2008 promoting a rethink of the Union’s approach to Russia, Ukraine and the South Caucasus, there is also a strong case for revisiting the EU Strategy for Central Asia and considering ways of making Europe’s contacts more effective with the key countries of the region.

Development, security and energy: improving coherence

Amelia Hadfield, Richard Youngs — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

David McNew/Getty Images

The ethos of EU development policy is changing. Incorporating both political and security goals, EU development co-operation has taken on a more holistic identity. It is increasingly linked to more ambitious outcomes in which good governance, human rights, conflict resolution and the challenges of sustainability all play a part.

This widened scope provides a platform to engage with EU policy on energy security. This document, funded under the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities theme of EDC2020 and co-ordinated by EADI, provides a snapshot of the policy connections linking development, broad security goals and specific energy objectives.

Can the EU effectively manage a policy nexus between securitised development and energy security? It certainly has the potential to do so. But fundamental policy changes are required before it can claim to be on the road towards this goal.

Hybrid regimes or regimes in transition?

Leonardo Morlino — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP/Getty Images

In recent times, growing interest in democratisation and the development of associated research has aroused considerable interest in the more specific theme of the spread of hybrid or ‘transitional’ regimes.

This Working Paper outlines the quantitative terms of democratisation; pinpoints the pertinent analytic dimensions, starting with definitions of the terms ‘regime’, ‘authoritarianism’ and ‘democracy’; defines a ‘hybrid regime’; proposes a typology of hybrid regimes; and, finally, tries to answer the key question posed in the title.

As becomes clear, this question is not only closely bound up with prospects for change in the nations that have such ambiguous forms of political organisation, but also, more generally, with the spread of democratisation. The main findings of the Working Paper point to the need to ensure the existence of institutions largely capable of performing their functions and to the potentially strong role of governments and international organisations in helping to build state institutions, even prior to the establishment of democracies.

The politics of energy

Jos Boonstra, Edward Burke, Richard Youngs — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

Corbis

Expanding upon the conclusions identified in FRIDE WP 65 "Energy: a reinforced obstacle to democracy?", this paper by Jos Boonstra, Edward Burke and Richard Youngs adopts a case study approach to evaluate the complex relationship between energy and democracy.

Using the examples of Azerbaijan, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, the authors observe that while high energy prices have undoubtedly empowered the regimes of these countries, rising expectations regarding the use of natural resource wealth have also led to increased popular protest against the mismanagement of state revenues.

They explore the notion that while it would be too simplistic to presume that democracy support has been entirely over-ridden by energy security concerns, both the US and the EU need to focus far more consistently and systematically on the new concern with ‘energy governance’ if they are to have the kind of positive impact necessary for their own longer-term security interests.

China: democratising one-party rule?

Shaun Breslin — 2008-11-22T10:09:52+01:00

Frederic Brown/AFP/Getty Images

A more consultative form of politics is emerging in China. Questioning the one-party state is still not deemed legitimate and the demand for democratic change is hard to gauge.The driving force behind the ushering in of a more open form of politics is the Chinese Communist Party's 'National Project'.

This paper examines the complex relations between nationalism, economic development and political change in China and assesses the prospects for longer-term democratisation - along with the policy implications for Western governments.