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Reform versus capture: Guatemala after the elections
08/11/2007 By Ivan Briscoe
The victory of Álvaro Colom, candidate for the social democratic National Unity of Hope (UNE) party in the closely fought second round of Guatemala's presidential elections on November 4, represents another milestone in the country's 22-year-old democracy.
But the election campaign also revealed clear signs of weakening in the state and the political system, shedding light on structural problems that might not be solvable through gradual reform and negotiation.
It is critical at this point to explore at several levels the future prospects for this country of 13 million. Colom is set to confront a number of "burning issues" over the coming months - notable tax revenues, the cohesion of his own party and purges in state institutions - which are likely to provoke tensions between the obligations incurred during his campaign, and the need for reform as perceived by the international community and his presidential team.
This short-term scenario, however, will be shaped by a structural dynamic that could be provisionally categorized as "fragility" or "state capture"; in other words, a chronic lack of state capacity, reflecting institutional corrosion in the police and judicial systems, a clear lack of business interest in financing increased tax revenues, and the marginalization of indigenous people in national political life.
The question also arises of how Guatemala's disfigured state institutions can be reconstructed without employing the methods of arbitrary and coercive intervention. Promises to sort out Guatemala's institutions and stall the establishment of a "narco-state" by military means were at the heart of the election campaign of retired general, Otto Pérez Molina.
Colom for his part will not find it easy to make the right balance between strengthening institutions and effecting direct interventions in a context of formal democracy.
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Keywords
Crime Fragile state Guatemala Inequality Latin America & Caribbean State buildingRelated publications
Bio author: Ivan Briscoe
Former senior researcher in Peace, Security and Human Rights at FRIDE.
