FRIDE Peace, Security & Human Rights

After the peace comes the storm: Somalia's relentless crisis

Richard Cornwell — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

After 17 years without a functional national state, hopes for peace in the war-torn African country rose after a surprising agreement in June between the government and the opposition-in-exile, blessed by the United Nations. But the fragmentation of armed groups, the calculations of foreign governments and continuing militia violence in this country of nine million people has meant that the chances of an end to a worsening humanitarian crisis are more remote than ever.

In this Comment article Richard Cornwell explores the prospects for peace and asks what lies ahead for the people of the troubled nation.

Afghanistan, the limits of counter-insurgency

Juan Garrigues, Robert Matthews — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

Getty Images

As the conflict in Afghanistan worsens and extends, a series of debates is unfolding in NATO and the need for discussion about the political options available to the international community and the political forces within Afghanistan is becoming increasingly urgent. One option suggested by many analysts is to promote an agenda of national reconciliation that includes the Taliban in negotiations.

In order to address the issues that surround a revised counter-insurgency strategy and political reconciliation, FRIDE organised a seminar last March in Madrid entitled: “Afghanistan: is there a political solution?”. The event was attended by more than 40 experts, government workers and members of the armed forces.

Bolivia: a national clash over multiple worlds

Jon Bright — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

Rodrigo Buendia/AFP/Getty Images

Two and a half years into his presidency, the Evo Morales reform programme has stalled, and Bolivia is in political deadlock. His far reaching constitutional project, which would serve not only to redistribute the country’s land and resource wealth but refound Bolivia on “plurinational” lines, has been approved by the constituent assembly, but without the presence of the main opposition party, who bitterly oppose the way the document distributes economic and political power in the country.

The fallout from an imminent recall vote – and the political manoeuvring around it – will decide whether his project gets moving again, or remains grounded. If it can be passed, however, the constitution as it stands could construct an uncertain future for the country. Whether it will provide a framework under which Bolivia’s multiple worldviews can mutually coexist and cooperate, or lay the foundations for a country permanently divided, remains to be seen.

This paper analyses the situation in Bolivia on two levels – looking first at the current debate over distribution of land and resource wealth and the political context of the forthcoming August 10th recall vote, before moving on to a more in depth analysis of Bolivia’s new constitution, looking in particular and the possible effects of trying to found a “plurinational” country.

IBSA: An International Actor and Partner of the EU?

Susanne Gratius — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

Emerging powers and south-south cooperation are beginning to alter the foundations of the international system and to challenge the traditional power structure within multilateral organizations. The recently established dialogue forum between Brazil, India and South Africa (IBSA) is part of this trend towards the establishment of a new global order.

Edited by Susanne Gratius, this Working Paper analyses the prospects and limits of the IBSA dialogue forum between India, Brazil and South Africa and the three countries' relations with the EU.

The three chapters of the Working Paper, written by several authors, concentrate on IBSA's identity, the status of power of India, Brazil and South Africa, their bilateral strategic partnerships with the EU and the advantages for closer relations between IBSA and the EU.

Latin American's new conflict zones

Ivan Briscoe — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

Marco Millán/AFP/Getty Images

The border regions of Latin America are home to the region’s most extreme violence and instability. Mexico’s attempts to combat drug trafficking on its frontier with the United States and the dispute between Ecuador and Colombia over the latter’s bombardment of a FARC camp epitomize the dilemmas of tackling illicit trafficking and the presence of armed groups along frontiers that lie largely outside the control of the state.

The new hemispheric security strategy of the United States promises an integrated and cooperative approach to these concerns and other “emerging threats”. But military solutions in contexts marked by institutional corrosion, powerful illicit networks and competing authorities have rarely proved effective over the long term, while the concentration of security threats along international frontiers is stirring distrust between neighbouring countries rather than increasing cooperation.

Disengagement or delusion?

Tony Kinsella — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

Peter Muhly/AFP/Getty Images

Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty 53 percent to 47 percent on June 12. This result, from a country which has probably benefited more from the EU than any other, stunned many. The vote has direct consequences for Ireland and the EU, and poses wider questions.

In this comment article Irish Times journalist Tony Kinsella explores the political blunders which made it possible for the “No” camp to secure victory, despite all five of the main political parties throwing their support behind the treaty.

He also argues that, if Ireland wishes to continue benefiting from the EU, her voters will have to be invited to vote on Lisbon again, and that this time around the country’s leaders will have to do a better job of explaining what is at stake.

The food crisis in Haiti: a ruptured process?

Amélie Gauthier — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

Secondhand/Flickr

The crisis in Haiti is nothing less than a giant step backwards for the peace stabilisation and consolidation process which began back in 2004. In April, violent disturbances took place throughout Haiti, causing the whole country to grind to a halt, and the Prime Minister was ousted. As Haiti sank deeper into chaos, neither the government nor the United Nations Mission (MINUSTAH) was able to do anything to check the unrest in which four Haitians lost their lives along with a UN Nigerian policeman.

The underlying idea behind aid and development plans for Haiti is that one day the country will be able to produce and buy like a normal country, thanks to the liberalisation of its economy. That presumption is erroneous. Haiti needs a coherent plan geared to food and energy self-sufficiency, the use of its own natural resources, and international aid to build a basic but decent infrastructure for its citizens.

In this Comment article Amélie Gauthier explores the ongoing economic and political factors that have led to the crisis and asks what can be done to move forwards towards a sustainable solution.

Europe, USA and Middle East

Mariano Aguirre Ernst — 2008-08-29T17:28:36+01:00

El Presidente de Líbano, Michel Sleiman y Nicolás Sarkozy. (GERARD CERLES/AFP/Getty Images)

The opening of negotiations between Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights and the appointment of a new president in Lebanon are both important political developments for the Middle East. But despite these facts, the region remains devastated by conflicts that demand an urgent change in the policies of both the United Status and the European Union. Forthcoming events in 2009, in both the US and the EU, open certain possibilities.

After eights years of blunders in the Middle East, the new US presidency will have an opportunity. There is a generalised consensus that the country has lost influence and legitimacy in the region thanks to the invasion of Iraq and the failure of the war there, not to mention its unconditional support for Israel, and a democracy promotion project which amounted to supporting allied regimes and boycotting any elections won by Islamist parties.

Mariano Aguirre argues that Europe and the US could collaborate in helping states to reform. They must, however, take on board the complexity of a region which is bound by its colonial history, the demands on its energy resources, migration, terrorism, and political and commercial relations.