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Eastern dimension and the Balkans / Working Paper

Buffer Rus: new challenges for EU policy towards Belarus

15/03/2007 By Balázs Jarábik, Alastair James Rabagliati

The accession of the EU’s new central and eastern European member states, and protests surrounding the 2006 presidential elections in Belarus, have increased the
EU’s attention to developments in Minsk.

In addition, the January 2007 energy dispute with Russia appears to be a watershed in relations with Russia, which may come to undermine the economic and political foundations of Lukashenka’s regime.

An ‘opening towards the West’ is the only card that Lukashenka currently holds in
his attempts to increase pressure on the Kremlin. Lukashenka aims at turning
Belarus into ‘Buffer Rus’ – a transit country, aimed at obtaining as much as it can
from both the East and the West – with the overall objective of maintaining himself
in power.

This path lacks any long-term vision for the development of Belarus.
Belarus is a key case study for EU democracy promotion policy.

EU policy should uphold two previously defined principles; first, that dialogue is conditional; second, that the main focus should be on increasing direct communication and contact with the Belarusian people.

At present, the EU’s lack of visibility in Belarus and the lack of tools for communicating with the Belarusian population is hampering policy and reducing the impact of European financial assistance.

If the EU wishes to offer a ‘European’ alternative for the Belarusian people, it must act urgently to implement a more effective policy.

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Keywords

Belarus Eastern Europe and Russia Elections EU Foreign Policy Political Reform

Bio author: Balázs Jarábik

Currently, Balázs Jarábik is head of Pact Ukraine in Kiev and associate fellow at FRIDE's Democratisation programme in Madrid.

Bio author: Alastair James Rabagliati

Alastair James Rabagliati is a political analyst in the East European Democratic Centre, based in Polland. He is an expert on developments in Belarus and in particular Belarus political parties and civil society, and Belarus relations with the EU. He holds a PhD from the University of Exeter.