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Central Asia / Comment

Turkmenistan after Turkmenbashi: transition without transformation

09/01/2007 By Balázs Jarábik

The president’s death raises the stakes for international interests in Turkmenistan. The country’s recoverable gas reserves could exceed 20 trillion cubic metres, and oil reserves are around 3 billion barrels (400 million tons).

The largely Muslim country of 5 million people that borders Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is a key supplier of natural gas to the Russian state gas monopolist Gazprom.

Any instability in Turkmenistan could affect Gazprom's ability to meet customer demand at home and abroad, including Europe. Access to the country's natural gas resources is vital for the EU, China, the US, and most particularly for Russia, as demand rises over future decades.

Nevertheless, it seems that all these regional powers were unprepared for Niyazov’s death, despite the fact that his heart problems were well known.

The International Crisis Group was arguing two years ago that international powers needed to start thinking through how they would respond to Turkmenbashi’s departure; Turkmenistan was defined as a failed state even prior to that.

So far no international power has called strongly and explicitly for far reaching political reform in one of the world’s most absolute dictatorships.

International forces seem to be hoping that the elite close to Turkmenbashi will be able to undertake a smooth transition and maintain stability.

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Keywords

Central Asia and Russia Elections Energy Security Turkmenistan

Bio author: Balázs Jarábik

Currently, Balázs Jarábik is head of Pact Ukraine in Kiev and associate fellow at FRIDE's Democratisation programme in Madrid.