FRIDE The new Middle East

Assad's fall: how likely, how desirable?

Barah Mikaïl — 2013-05-24T19:58:00+01:00

A fall of Assad’s regime would supposedly entail great risks for regional security. Assad, it seems, has succeeded in presenting himself to the international community as the only alternative to such risk. As for the Syrian population, it is strongly divided between supporters of the regime and a myriad of opponents that stick to individual and contradictory agendas. Therefore, what is the real risk of a fall of Assad’s regime, and what solutions do we have for the ongoing crisis?

When gravity fails... Five futures for Euro-Mediterranean relations

Richard Youngs — 2013-05-24T19:58:00+01:00

The EU's response to the Arab spring includes some promising new policy developments. Now, deliberation is required on the longer-term dynamics between Europe and the Middle East. Five different types of governance are possible: Euro-Mediterranean governance; EU exported governance; cosmopolitan governance; strategic recalibration; and de-Europeanised governance. The EU's immediate response to the Arab revolts must not lock in an undue reliance on the first two models. Trends point towards a plurality of governance dynamics, less centred on EU institutional forms.

The role of external actors in the Arab transitions

Ana Echagüe — 2013-05-24T19:58:00+01:00

External actors have expressed regret for the tacit support they provided to the deposed autocrats. Nevertheless, policy adjustments do not reflect a qualitative change of paradigm. The key to successful external support will be tailoring policies to each state, supporting domestically-driven processes and committing for the long term.

Islamist-led foreign policies: what implications?

Kristina Kausch — 2013-05-24T19:58:00+01:00

The sweeping electoral victories of Islamist political parties are set to shift the terms and priorities of European engagement with Arab states. A recurrent theme in Europe’s policy debates has been the concern that democratic elections in the Arab world would bring governments to power that are hostile to key Western interests. Indeed, fears that new governments may upset the basis of the region’s fragile security arrangements have been a major driving force behind the tacit EU and US support for Arab autocrats. As democratic elections across North Africa begin to bring a new political class to the fore, international partners are wondering what to expect.

The UK in the Middle East: commercial diplomacy to what end?

Helene Michou — 2013-05-24T19:58:00+01:00

Facing economic austerity at home, the government coalition is aiming to reinvigorate Britain’s bilateral relationships via ‘commercial diplomacy’. In the Middle East this has led to criticisms of hypocrisy. Support for transitions across North Africa and messages of reform to dictators in the Gulf sit uncomfortably alongside sales pitches and defence contracts. Whilst the UK cannot be expected to pursue a disinterested foreign policy, neither should commercial diplomacy become a mere euphemism for a zero sum vision.